Perencanaan Wilayah Berkelanjutan:Analisis Spasial Perubahan Lahan dan Faktor Pendorongnya di Kawasan Peri-Urban Puncak

Rajwa Balqisecha; Arditya Wicaksono

doi:10.31292/jta.v9i3.749

Authors

Rajwa Balqisecha University of Indonesia
Arditya Wicaksono Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8661-1106

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31292/jta.v9i3.749

Keywords:

Penggunaan Lahan dan Tutupan Lahan, kawasan peri-urban, faktor pendorong konversi lahan, perencanaan regional berkelanjutan, batas-batas ekologis

Abstract

Abstract: Land use and land cover change is a critical global environmental dynamic that contributes to ecosystem degradation and increased disaster risk. In peri-urban areas such as Puncak, this dynamic is intensified by dual pressures from tourism development and conservation mandates for the Ciliwung watershed, driving significant land conversion and ecological risk. This study aims to identify the spatial patterns and concentration of land conversion from vegetation to built-up areas in Puncak and determine the significant driving factors behind conversion probability to support adaptive spatial planning. A quantitative, spatial-temporal approach was used. Land change detection employed Sentinel-2 imagery (2021 and 2025) classified via Random Forest on Google Earth Engine. A total of 100 sample points were selected through stratified random sampling, analyzed using logistic regression to identify significant driving factors, and GIS overlay to quantify conversion within protected areas. Built-up area increased by 854,35 ha, while agricultural land and vegetation decreased by 575,86 ha and 278,3 ha, respectively, concentrated along main road corridors and high-growth population zones. Population growth and distance to main corridors were significant predictors of conversion. Conversion within protected areas further points to limited enforcement, threatening the Ciliwung watershed’s ecological function and current spatial planning.

Keywords: Driving factors of land conversion, Ecological boundaries, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), Peri-urban areas, Sustainable regional planning

Abstrak: Perubahan penggunaan dan tutupan lahan merupakan dinamika lingkungan global yang kritis serta berkontribusi pada degradasi ekosistem dan peningkatan risiko bencana. Di kawasan peri urban seperti Puncak, dinamika ini menjadi kompleks akibat tekanan ganda dari pengembangan pariwisata dan mandat konservasi DAS Ciliwung, yang memicu konversi lahan signifikan serta risiko ekologis. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi pola spasial konsentrasi perubahan lahan vegetasi menjadi lahan terbangun di Puncak, serta menentukan faktor – faktor pendorong signifikan beserta pengaruh relatifnya untuk mendukung perencanaan spasial yang adaptif. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan analisis spatial-temporal. Deteksi perubahan lahan dilakukan menggunakan citra Sentinel-2 tahun 2021 dan 2025, diolah dengan algoritma Random Forest pada Google Earth Engine. Sebanyak 100 titik sampel dipilih melalui stratified random sampling. Regresi logistik digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor signifikan, dan analisis overlay GIS untuk mengukur proporsi konversi. Antara tahun 2021-2025, lahan terbangun di Puncak meningkat 854,35 ha, sementara lahan pertanian dan vegetasi masing – masing berkurang 575,86 ha dan 278,3 ha, yang terkonsentrasi di sepanjang koridor jalan utama dan area dengan laju pertumbuhan penduduk tinggi. Konversi yang terjadi di dalam kawasan lindung juga mengindikasikan lemahnya penegakan aturan, mengancam fungsi ekologis DAS Ciliwung dan efektivitas perencanaan spasial saat ini.

Kata Kunci: Batas-batas ekologis, Faktor-faktor pendorong konversi lahan, Kawasan peri-urban, Penggunaan Lahan dan Tutupan Lahan, Perencanaan regional berkelanjutan

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